The PHAC COVID Numbers Don’t Add Up
Proposed vaccination targets are arbitary and bear no relationship to the actual experience of other countries.
Guest contribution by Robert Lyman, a retired economist and public servant who has spent over forty years analyzing and advising on energy, environment and transportation policy issues in Canada. (Full profile below.)
On May 14, 2021, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) issued guidelines about the steps that Canadians should take to avoid the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic over the summer and fall of 2021. The wording of the statement was somewhat ambiguous. It warned that, “to drive infection rates lower”, Canada needed at least 75% of eligible adults to have one dose of the vaccines and at least 20% of these to have a second dose. As even that was not enough “to maximize protection”, the statement indicated that “We need to aim for at least 75% of everyone eligible for vaccination getting fully vaccinated”, which is code for double-dosed.
Once that goal is attained, Canadians “might” be able to reduce restrictions in September.
The agency did not release its mathematical calculations that underlie these statements, so I thought I would try to reconstruct them. It is not too difficult to conclude that the proposed targets involved are arbitrary. Why? Because they bear no relationship to the actual experience of other countries that have been far more successful than Canada in reducing the spread of the virus and in reducing restrictions on the population. Apart from a few small island states, no country has done better in vaccinating its population than Israel. According to Our World in Data, 62% of Israelis have received at least a single vaccine dose and about 59% have received two doses. In the United Kingdom, 54% of the population have received a single dose and 30% a double-dose. In the United States, 47% have received a single dose and 37% a double-dose. Israel has essentially eliminated all restrictions, and the UK and USA are in the process of doing the same. What does the PHAC know that the governments of those countries do not?
Even more puzzling is the view that Canadians may not reach a situation whereby sufficient vaccinations will be administered to reduce serious restrictions until September. Let’s examine the numbers.
Canada’s population is about 37.8 million people. Assuming conservatively that at least 10% of them are not “eligible” to receive the vaccines, that leaves about 34 million people as the target population. Seventy-five per cent of them could be single-dosed with 25.5 million doses. To vaccinate 20% of them a second time would require 6.8 million doses. So, the total of the two (25.5 million plus 6.8 million) would be 32.3 million doses.
By May 16, almost 14.8 million doses had already been administered, and Health Canada projects that over the period to the end of May, an additional 4.1 million doses will be distributed and, presumably, administered, followed by 10.4 million in June. This means that, by the end of June, 29.3 million doses will have been administered, only 3 million doses short of the target. With people being vaccinated in July at the projected rate of 345,000 per day on average, the 32.3 million total could be reached by July 9.
What about the extremely demanding target of double dosing 75% of all “eligible” Canadians? That would require 51 million doses. With 14.8 million doses already administered, we would need 36.2 million more. At projected rates of vaccination, that figure would be reached by July 21.
What this means is that even imposing a standard of COVID vaccinations far more stringent than that which has been applied in any other country in the world, Canada would still be able to meet it by July 21, and the idea of continuing restrictions into late summer or fall is “cautious in the extreme”, to put it in the most polite terms.
Canada will reach the level of COVID vaccination that now exists in the United States before the end of June. As Canadians watch on television as Americans enjoy their freedoms from lockdowns this summer, it will become increasingly difficult for Canadian governments to explain why such an extreme position is justified.
Robert (Bob) Lyman
Robert Lyman is a retired economist and public servant who has spent over forty years analyzing and advising on energy, environment and transportation policy issues in Canada.
He spent the first ten years of his career as a foreign service officer with postings to the Canadian embassies in Caracas, Venezuela and Washington, D.C.
He then spent 37 years working in different federal government departments, almost always as an analyst, advisor and manager dealing with energy and environmental policy issues. He retired in 2006 as Director General, Environmental Affairs at Transport Canada, where he managed a directorate responsible for providing policy advice and delivering programs that would reduce the environmental effects of the transportation industry in Canada.
After retiring from the public service, he spent ten years as a consultant performing policy-related studies for federal and provincial government departments. Since 2015, he has been increasingly involved as a commentator on climate-related policy issues in Canada. His writings have been published by the U.K. Global Warming Policy Forum and by on-line sources such as the Friends of Science and Canadians for Sensible Climate Policy. He is an occasional contributor to the Comment page of the Financial Post. He recently appeared as an expert witness before the House of Commons Committee on Industry, Science and Technology to discuss the role that “green” energy should play in Canada’s economic recovery.
He has a strong personal commitment to improving the quality of policy so that it may better serve the Canadian public interest and to the inclusive, tolerant exchange of views about policies that affect all Canadians.
He resides in Ottawa.
Isn't it incredible. Dr. Williams is replaced by another heavily conflicted public health officer from Kingston. The area where they were sending Toronto patients to as they stated Toronto hospitals were overwhelmed.
Renata Ford's Facebook states Rob Ford was removed to bring in communism and that John Tory is evil. Did you know that the mayor of Toronto is supposedly in bed with drug lords. That the Toronto Police chief also. Major cities in Canada have their mayors in bed with drug lords. Out of the mouth of experienced RCMP.
Is Renata Ford correct. Is Doug Ford in bed with the elites and pushing to communism or is he blackmailed?
Maybe Renata Ford knows John Tory is in bed with drug lords and gun running. Perhaps he would like to comment publicly. Renata Ford doesn't like him including alot of Toronto does not like him. The crowds ignoring emergency order in Toronto proves this. The fact he is pushing to vaccines including children proves this
The media also has those in bed with drug Lords. The same ones that cover up the truth. Let's see what the new Doc replacing Dr. Williams has to say. He will be judged and lawsuits will come against him as well if he hurts the citizens. If Favid Dishman likes him that speaks volumes. It means the opposite from Dishman who is connected to the government of Canada. See the politics. Maybe Dishman is connected to illegal drugs. Who knows. Renata Ford is speaking her mind. The crooked person on the Federal covid table connected to the Chinese scientists who were kicked out of the Winnipeg Microbiology lab. That speaks volumes and clues to the crooked involved. You can be sure the covid 19 virus created in Wuhan lab with Canadian and USA participation and funding. That this virus didn't leak accidentally it was leaked in a certain way. Don't like that too bad. You can investigate that if your honest cops and Feds.
To those reading this who will create False flags your job is to investigate the Chinese involvement. Your job is to investigate the science table links. Your job is to investigate bad vaccine and cover up. Your job is to protect citizens not attack the messengers who are loving compassionate and provide the links. Your job is to protect citizens from false flags. If you attack the messenger your the coward criminals and you will prove you are the criminals. Watch the judge in the Justice Center quarantine hotel challenge. Watch the federal covid 19 table link to disgraced Chinese scientists who stole viruses or were given them to take to China. Investigate the adverse reactions to the vaccines including deaths in the young. Investigate the PM and his office and posse and the premiers. Investigate the public health. Stop being fearful. Stop being cowards. Investigate the psychopaths. Stop intimidating courageous doctors because we can read the data. We do not need a medical degree to figure it out. The crooked are easy to find. The trolls are easy to find. The very fact Anthony Fauci was caught lying under oath and now the lab leak from Wuhan is being used proves a cover up. Senator Rand Paul unleashed the swamp creatures trying to clean up. The gain of function can't be covered up.
Yes you will attempt to kill the messenger but the chatter is great everywhere on social media. The chatter is indicating evil forces at play and resistance foiling their endeavors.