A Closer Look at Mortality in Canada
The aging of Canada's population had been driving up the mortality rate long before Covid-19.
Amid all the news attention on Covid-19 and related deaths, it’s illuminating to step back and take a closer look at the trends that were driving growth in the mortality rate long before the pandemic, and to put Covid-19 mortality in perspective.
In the chart below we see the total number of deaths in Canada over the past ten years.
Looking at the past decade, we see that it's natural for deaths in one year to exceed deaths in the previous year (blue line > 0%). Note that a year of low or negative growth is often followed by a year of much higher growth.
Here we have the first chart above now expressed as a rate per 100,000 people. Generally, a flatter trend in death rates would suggest that population growth may be a key factor driving growth in total deaths.
Across the decade, again we see that when we adjust for population growth, the growth trend is weaker but still there - the aging of the population is a primary factor. Deaths are rising in absolute and relative terms, suggesting a combination of population growth and aging.
Here are total weekly deaths in Canada from January 2010 to December 2020.
Here are deaths and death rates since 1900. Note how the death rate bottomed out in the early 1980s and has been rising steadily since, accelerating when the Baby Boomers started to reach their 70s in 2016.
Here are leading causes of death in Canada over the past 5 years.
Many recent deaths remain unclassified in the "information unavailable" column and will presumably will properly attributed over time.
Here is the same data presented in rates per 100,000 population to account for population growth.
A key question to address as this data evolves is the degree to which deaths attributed to Covid-19 have substituted for deaths attributed to other causes.
Part of the increase in death in 2020 can be explained by the response to the pandemic (i.e., lockdown), rather than covid-19 itself.
Note also that Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.
There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.
Here are the number of deaths from all causes in 2019 vs. the number of deaths from or with Covid-19 in 2020-21.
The average age of a death by or with Covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.
Deaths among those over 80 account for 68% of deaths by/with Covid-19, but only 51% of all deaths (all causes) in 2019.
The 70+ age cohort accounts for only 12% of the population but 73% of all-cause deaths in Canada and 88% of deaths from or with Covid-19.
In contrast, children account for 22% of the pop. but only 1% of all-cause deaths in Canada and 0% (0.03%) of deaths from or with Covid-19.
Among > 80 in Canada, there were 8,939 deaths of all causes in 2019 and 981 deaths from or with Covid-19 per 100,000 people in 2020-21.
In contrast, among children, there are 36 deaths of all causes in 2019 and 0 (0.07) deaths from or with Covid-19 per 100,000 people in 2020-21.
Here are the Covid-19 case survival rates (= 100% - case fatality rate) by age. Note that true survival rates based on the infection fatality rate (IFR) would be significantly higher.)
This article has been adapted from a thread that originally appeared on Twitter:
Sources:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1310081001
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013401
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#Vital_statistics
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm
On Tuesday April 20/21 a complaint was filed at The Hague against the UK government and its advisors for genocide crimes against humanity and Nuremberg code violations.
Boom!!! .Canadian complaint on the way?
When police think they have the right to remove children from loving homes because parents didn't social distance we have a real infringement on the Charger of Rights and abuse by police.. This is despicable. So will the OPP be removing chldren from mobsters and other organized crime figures and from crooked cops too who move drugs engage in racketeering money laundering fraud?
Were waiting..
The Canadian Emergency Act is only a temporary measure when the situation is critical and is for the protection of citizens who are in absolute danger and the Province can't contain it. Hmm isn't this a Virus with a survival rate of 99.9 for majority and many with no symptoms or light. Very few with severe as seen after nearly 2 influenza seasons the deaths have centred in a controlled environment as LTC and to those with a number of health issues.
The Emergency Act is to protect us from outside danger which could include foreign interference as CSIS stated there is. So where is a true emergency then? This virus is endemic and not a real threat so thus little hard to enact the Emergency Act. As well the Government even under the Emergency Act cannot detain or imprison or put into internment camps Canadian citizens and legal immigrants.
It's only temporary so continued lock down during the summer with no data to support it wouldnt even be allowed under the Emergency Act . Summer data proves it. So where are these characters allowed to use criminal coercion blackmail to take a vax or be in lockdown.
These characters are trampling on every avenue of Canadian Law and Charter. With Quarantine Hotels and arrests of people not social distancing.